Election Liveblogging

So tonight is, as both Rod Stewart and Neil Young would have it, the night. In 2008, I was yet a youngling, unversed in the ways of the Interweb; not yet having discovered RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight or even my dearest friend The Dish. Now, however, I'm much more versed in the ways of these things, and as such I shall attempt to provide some tea-fuelled commentary, insofar as possible. I'll no doubt also be expounding some rather shorter opinions on Twitter, so do join me there too.

Note on bias: I support Obama. I make no secret of this fact, as I believe the four-year-old video at the top of this post makes reasonably clear. That said, I try to keep an open mind about data, so if the night seems to be swinging Romney's way, I won't try to spin that. I will, however, swear an awful lot more.

Note on resources: I'll probably be sticking with BBC 1 all night, but with constant reference to various blogs and online newspapers, linked as relevant. Bear this in mind for when I inevitably start making jokes about David Dimbleby.

I'm not big on predictions, and I do genuinely think this one could go either way. But what the hell: Obama, with circa 280 EV.

11.20 p.m.: Nothing whatsoever is happening. All the news networks are doing their utmost to cover this up. That said, The Daily Show appears to be on Comedy Central. The fact that I have Comedy Central on my telly is news to me; the surprises start early tonight.

11.35 p.m.: Just put on the kettle for the first time tonight, and gathered together a plate of liveblogging biscuits for the next couple of hours.
I'm pleasantly surprised by how refreshed I feel. I've been a bit out of it all day, but I seem rather awake now. I do seem to be making more spelling mistakes than usual, though, so expect incomprehensibility later on.

11.40 p.m.: I see RTÉ's coverage has started. As ever, I'll be missing Garret Fitzgerald by the end of the night. Also, BRUCE!

11.45 p.m.: All this time-filling highlights nonsense is rather pointless. It means nothing to anyone who hasn't been following the election closely, and anyone who has probably doesn't need reminding of it. Still, at least I got to see Clint arguing with an empty chair again.

11.50 p.m. (I'm rounding off, btw): I believe the BBC coverage has started in the UK proper, but I'm sitting here watching a documentary about Ian Rankin. Feckin' BBC NI.

11.55 p.m.: Well, hello, live feed! Oh, Dimbleby; how I've longed for your sonorous tones.
That said, bugger all is happening, obviously.

12.05 a.m.: First projected results give a 19:3 result to Romney. No real surprises there. Also, a BBC reporter just said "math", which annoyed me more than it really should.

12.10 a.m.: Good guide here from Nate Cohn (via The Dish) recommending caution when looking at early indications from swing states; for some time, Obama will probably appear to lead in Ohio, Romney in Virginia. Doesn't really mean much, but news outlets must fill space and time. As, indeed, must I.

12.20 a.m.: To be perfectly honest, I've only half been paying attention to the coverage so far. This is partly because nothing whatsoever has really happened yet, but largely because Soundgarden are on Later.

[Between these two entries, my aged laptop (which saw me through 2008) overheated, for the first, but almost certainly not the last, time tonight.]

12.25 a.m.: Interesting how gracious and bipartisan people from both sides seem to suddenly be tonight. One wonders how long it'll last. I'm rather enjoying the Big British Castle's habit of putting "REPUBLICAN" or "DEMOCRAT" in huge letters above the names of correspondents.

12.40 a.m.: Now the Castle is looking at campaign attack ads. Turns out they're very partisan. Who'd have guessed?

12.50 a.m.: Update: Nothing is still happening. Luckily, we've got lots of polls closing at the top of the hour, so we should get some results in soon. Projected count currently stands at 33:3, by the by.

12.53 a.m.: Ah, a BBC reporter standing amid a ludicrous Minority Report-style moving graphic. How I've missed this.

12.55 a.m.: Andrew Sullivan rounds up the predictions of various pundits. Worth referring to as we move through the night.

1.05 a.m.: More safe states coming in, mostly blue, bringing us to 56:40 to Obama. Dimbleby's sedateness rather suits this part of the night, I'm finding.

1.10 a.m.: If you want an alternative to me, Andrew's liveblogging (live on the Colbert Report, no less) too. In fairness, I stole the idea from him.
Incidentally, it seems Obama has both a victory and a concession speech; Romney
 only has a victory speech. Potential for hilarity there.

1.20 a.m.: Early indications from Ohio, Florida and, surprisingly, Virginia seem to favour Obama, but it doesn't necessarily mean much. My feeling, though, is that Obama has more momentum right now than anyone, including perhaps the Dems, realised.

1.40 a.m.: Every time Dimbleby says "But, Jeremy..." or "If we can go to you, Jeremy...", my head dips and I tune out the telly for a bit. Those insane BBC graphics are never worth as much as they must certainly cost.

1.45 a.m.: Curious discrepancy between RTÉ and BBC. Both have Obama on 78, but the former have Romney on 88, while the latter have him on 76. Really underlines the preliminary nature of everything we have at this point.

1.53 a.m.: Twitter is certainly ready to give this to Obama already. That said, there's a big bias in the people I follow. The few Romney supporters (*cough* Louise Mensch *cough*) seem oddly silent.

1.58 a.m.: One Pastor Steve Holt just showed up being interviewed on the Castle. As a big Arrested Development fan, I was inordinately amused.

2.07 a.m.: Both candidates into triple figures: 153:123 to Romney. Still no real surprises, but things are stepping up a bit; we're getting better ideas of some of the swing states, and it's increasingly looking good for Obama.

2.12 a.m.: My guess right now is that, if Romney can snatch a victory, it'll be so close that it'll be massively contested, and therefore not much of a victory. A dead heat isn't good for anyone.

2.20 a.m.: Looks like Obama has Pennsylvania, though the Beeb hasn't called it yet, for some reason. Oh, they called it literally as I finished typing that sentence. Vindicated.

2.28 a.m.: I'm going to go wild and revise my earlier prediction upwards. I'm thinking circa 290 for Obama now.

2.33 a.m.: CNN reporting that there are only 636 votes between the candidates in Florida, with 81% of boxes opened. All I can say is: FOR FECK'S SAKE, FLORIDA.

2.38 a.m.: Crucially at this point, as Marc Ambinder has pointed out on Twitter, Romney MUST win the incredibly close Florida, Virginia and Ohio. To all intents and purposes, he's lost the race if he fails to win one of those three.

2.46 a.m.: Romney advisor Nile Gardiner on the Castle describing himself as "cautiously optimistic"; visibly sweating. Hmmm...

2.54 a.m.: Expanding on my view of 40ish minutes ago, Romney's potential road to victory is now looking so tentative that such a victory would be fatally undermined; his authority would be challenged perhaps even more than Bush's was in 2000. The momentum is very clearly Obama's.

3.09 a.m.: I haven't mentioned anything beyond the presidential election, mainly because of the lack of surprises - House going Republican, Senate going Democrat. The likes of Akin and Mourdock getting thrown out on their backsides. Marriage equality seems to be doing well, which is encouraging.

3.30 a.m.: One of the big narratives of this election is the changing demographics of America - whites are now a minority of births. Black and Latino votes are, it seems, the big impetus behind Obama. Bad news for the GOP; it's more clear than ever that they need to undergo drastic change in order to maintain any relevance.

3.37 a.m.: From the Beeb's live-blog: 'Wall Street Journal columnist and leading conservative Peggy Noonan on Fox News: "It's going to take some real thinking about what's happened here - if indeed what's seems to be happening turns out to be true."'
A shiny prize to the person who can make sense of that syntax. Doublespeak at its finest (and, indeed, most literal).

[A second overheating of the laptop occurs.]

4.02 a.m.: Obama hits 244 having unsurprisingly taken the west coast. We're still waiting on the cusp of several states. I'm rather wishing Florida would hurry up while I still have fingernails left.

4.12 a.m.: I thought FiveThirtyEight's 313:225 prediction was utterly insane before we started on this evening. Now there's a real possibility that Obama could surpass 313. I never imagined this in my wildest dreams.

4.16 a.m.: The American networks (all of them but CNN, it seems) are calling Ohio for Obama. Remarkable. I didn't think we'd know so quickly. Even more remarkably, it seems increasingly possible that Obama mightn't even need Florida or Virginia.

4.24 a.m.: The Big British Castle has now sent up its own Ohio flare. It's over.

4.25 a.m.: All year, I've been saying that Obama would likely win, but by a significantly smaller margin than in 2008. Now it looks like it could well be larger, EV-wise at least. I've rarely been so pleased to be wrong.

4.30 a.m.: Four years ago, people were saying to me: "I don't think America will elect a black president. I don't think they're ready for it. etc. etc." I countered by pointing to polls which showed Obama clearly ahead, which led to more dissembling (remember the mythical Bradley Effect?). One should never underestimate the importance of instinct in such matters, of course; but once more this year, we have a triumph of maths over feeling, as it were. People are calling Nate Silver the big winner of the evening; political science may be inexact, but it should never be underestimated, and certainly not ignored.

4.39 a.m.: I'm too tired to properly reflect on this (for instance, I seem to have just written a long paragraph about how maths won this election), but certainly I'll remember this for a long time. Normally I tend towards pessimism, or at least pragmatism; this election, just like the last one, is freeing the hopeful, idealistic child locked in my cage of cynicism.

4.42 a.m.: "[T]he hopeful child locked in my cage of cynicism" - good God, I'm delirious.

4.52 a.m.: I understand Karl Rove is having a reality-denying meltdown on Fox right now; and Donald Trump is essentially advocating a revolution on Twitter. Nice to know I'm not the only one being driven into insanity by this long night (though I could hope for better company, I must say).

5.03 a.m.: Lest we forget, historic victories, seemingly across the board, for marriage equality. Marijuana legalisation also seems to be doing very well.

5.05 a.m.: I think I'll leave things here (beating Romney to it). I never expected such a head of steam so early; I imagined gridlock, and a slow push in Obama's favour. This is more than I ever expected; a clear victory, which is exactly what was needed, for everyone's sake.